Less than five months before Election Day, the poll paints a picture of a nation with firmly entrenched opinions of the divisive former Republican president. Overall views of Trump and Democratic President Joe Biden remain unchanged since before the guilty verdict in Trump’s New York hush money trial.

But the findings also suggest that Trump’s conviction is one more weakness among disaffected Republicans. While most people in the United States have heard about the conviction, political independents are less likely to be paying attention and more likely to have a neutral opinion of Trump’s conviction, indicating that there may still be room for the campaigns to sway them.

Nancy Hauser, a 74-year-old independent from West Palm Beach, Florida, said she approves of Trump’s conviction based on the little she followed of the trial. The verdict, she said, suggests that Trump may be willing to engage in criminal activity if he were back in the White House.

“I feel if you’ve been convicted of a crime, especially a felony, a serious crime, how can you run a country?” she said.

But she also has concerns about Biden, especially his age and leadership on the economy and the war in Israel. Biden is 81, while Trump turns 78 on Friday.

“I’m not sure who I’m voting for,” Hauser said. “That’s the sad part.”

Overall, U.S. adults are more likely to approve of Trump’s conviction than they are to disapprove, according to a survey of 1,115 adults nationwide conducted over three days beginning a week after the verdict was delivered May 30, and before Biden’s son Hunter was convicted in a federal gun case on Tuesday.

About 3 in 10 somewhat or strongly disapprove of Trump’s conviction, and about 2 in 10 do not approve or disapprove. Perspectives were similar among registered voters, with about half saying the conviction was the right choice.

Republicans are less united on the verdict than are Democrats. Roughly 6 in 10 Republicans somewhat or strongly disapprove of the conviction, while 15% of Republican adults approve and about 2 in 10 Republicans neither approve nor disapprove. Among Democrats, by contrast, more than 8 in 10 somewhat or strongly approve.

About half of Americans say that the conviction was politically motivated, while a similar share think it was not. Nearly half of Republicans who have an unfavorable view of Trump do not see the conviction as politically motivated, compared with less than 1 in 10 Republicans who have a positive opinion of him.

Overall opinions of Trump barely budged.

About 6 in 10 U.S. adults have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, which is in line with findings from an AP-NORC poll conducted in February. Four in 10 have a favorable view of Trump, also largely unchanged since February.

The numbers are equally poor for Biden: 4 in 10 U.S. adults have a favorable view of the Democratic president, while about 6 in 10 have a negative one.

Ron Schwartz, a 59-year-old self-described moderate Republican who lives in Dallas, said that Trump was “probably guilty” of the alleged crimes, although Schwartz believes politics were a major factor in the case.

He said the charges should not have been felonies, a level of crime that blocks those convicted from owning guns or voting in many states. Still, Schwartz plans to vote for Trump, as he did in the past two presidential elections, despite having serious concerns about the former president’s character.

“I think he’s a disgusting human being,” Schwartz said. “But he has some good policies and good ideas.”

Independents are split on Trump overall: About 4 in 10 have a positive view, while a similar share have a negative view. A plurality — nearly half — did not express a strong opinion on the conviction, saying they did not approve or disapprove.

Cassi Carey, a 60-year-old independent who lives in suburban Milwaukee, said the conviction does not reflect well on Trump, although she acknowledges she was not paying close attention to the specifics.

“I think Trump is a terrible choice for our country because of his divisiveness,” Carey said. She also lamented the advanced age of Biden, who turns 82 in November.

“Someday in my lifetime, I want very much to be able to vote for a candidate and not against a candidate,” she said.

Overall, Americans are more likely to see Trump’s conviction as bad for the nation.

About 4 in 10 adults describe it as a bad thing for the country overall, while about one-third say it was a good thing and about 2 in 10 say it is neither. As for the U.S. democratic system, about 4 in 10 say the conviction is a good thing, with roughly the same share calling it a bad thing.

Trump continues to be overwhelmingly disliked by Democrats: 9 in 10 Democrats have an unfavorable view of him, with roughly 8 in 10 saying their opinion is “very unfavorable.”

Democrat Oscar Baza, a 29-year-old Mexican immigrant who lives in Los Angeles, said he approves of the Trump verdict, which is evidence of “the judicial process working as it should.”

“I just think it’s really worrisome that he’s on the ballot,” Baza said. “If you’ve been convicted of 34 counts of anything, you probably shouldn’t be leading anything, you should be going to therapy.”

After months of leaving open whether the group would offer a ticket, No Labels delegates are expected to vote Friday in favor of launching a presidential campaign for this fall’s election, according to the people familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the group’s internal deliberations.

No Labels will not name its presidential and vice presidential picks on Friday, when roughly 800 delegates meet virtually in a private meeting. The group is instead expected to debut a formal selection process late next week for potential candidates who would be selected in the coming weeks, the people said.

Democratic President Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump’s romp on Super Tuesday all but ensured a November rematch of the 2020 election. Polls suggest many Americans don’t have favorable views of Biden or Trump, a dynamic No Labels sees as an opening to offer a bipartisan ticket. But Biden supporters worry No Labels will pull votes away from the president in battleground states and are critical of how the group won’t disclose its donors or much of its decision-making.

No Labels officials would not publicly confirm plans for Friday’s meeting. In a statement, senior strategist Ryan Clancy said only, “We expect our delegates to encourage the process to continue.”

The two people familiar with the group noted that No Labels’ plans could change ahead of the vote. But they said there has been enthusiasm across its regional chapters for running a candidate, giving momentum to the idea of a vote on Friday.

The group has been weighing what it would present as a “unity ticket” to appeal to voters unhappy with both Biden and Trump. No Labels’ strategists have said they’ll give their ballot line to a bipartisan ticket with a presidential nominee from one major party and a vice presidential nominee from the other if they see a viable path to victory.

Group officials have said they are communicating with several potential candidates but have not disclosed any names.

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has said she’s not interested in running as a No Labels candidate. After Haley dropped out of the Republican race on Wednesday, No Labels in a statement congratulated her for “running a great campaign and appealing to the large swath of commonsense voters.”

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, a moderate Democrat who is not seeking re-election this year, has said he will not seek the presidency. Republican former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who had been involved with No Labels, is instead seeking a U.S. Senate seat in November.

No Labels has stockpiled cash from people it has declined to name, including former Republican donors who have become disenchanted with the party’s direction in the Trump era, and worked to secure ballot access in every state.

GREENVILLE, S.C. (AP) — There are no wins on the horizon for Nikki Haley.

Those close to the former United Nations ambassador, the last major Republican candidate standing in Donald Trump’s path to the GOP’s 2024 presidential nomination, are privately bracing for a blowout loss in her home state’s primary election in South Carolina on Saturday. And they cannot name a state where she is likely to beat Trump in the coming weeks.

But in an emotional address on Tuesday, Haley declared, “I refuse to quit.”

And in an interview, she vowed to stay in the fight against Trump at least until after Super Tuesday’s slate of more than a dozen contests on March 5 — even if she suffers a big loss in her home state Saturday.

“Ten days after South Carolina, another 20 states vote. I mean, this isn’t Russia. We don’t want someone to go in and just get 99% of the vote,” Haley told The Associated Press. “What is the rush? Why is everybody so panicked about me having to get out of this race?”

In fact, some Republicans are encouraging Haley to stay in the campaign even if she continues to lose — potentially all the way to the Republican National Convention in July in the event the 77-year-old former president, perhaps the most volatile major party front-runner in U.S. history, becomes a convicted felon or stumbles into another major scandal.

As Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement presses for her exit, a defiant Haley on Tuesday repeatedly likened Trump to Democratic President Joe Biden —and both as too old, too divisive and too unpopular to be the only options for voters this fall.

She also pushed back when asked if there is any primary state where she can defeat Trump.

“Instead of asking me what states I’m gonna win, why don’t we ask how he’s gonna win a general election after spending a full year in a courtroom?”

History would suggest Haley has no chance of stopping Trump.

Never before has a Republican lost even the first two primary contests, as Haley has by an average of 21 points, and gone on to win the party’s presidential nomination. Polls suggest she is a major underdog in her home state on Saturday and in the 16 Super Tuesday contests to follow. And since he announced his first presidential bid in 2015, every effort by a Republican to blunt Trump’s rise has failed.

Yet she is leaning into the fight.

Lest anyone question her commitment, Haley’s campaign is spending more than $500,000 on a new television advertising campaign set to begin running Wednesday in Michigan ahead of the state’s Feb. 27 primary, according to spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas. At the same time, the AP has obtained Haley’s post-South Carolina travel schedule that features 11 separate stops in seven days across Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, Utah, Virginia, Washington, D.C., North Carolina and Massachusetts.

The schedule also includes at least 10 high-dollar private fundraising events.

Indeed, Haley’s expansive base of big- and small-dollar donors is donating at an extraordinary pace despite her underwhelming performance at the polls. That’s a reflection of persistent Republican fears about Trump’s ability to win over independents and moderate voters in the general election and serious concerns about his turbulent leadership should he return to the White House.

“I’m going to support her up to the convention,” said Republican donor Eric Levine, who co-hosted a New York fundraiser for Haley earlier this month. “We’re not prepared to fold our tents and pray at the altar of Donald Trump.”

“There’s value in her sticking in and gathering delegates, because if and when he stumbles,” Levine continued, “who knows what happens.”

Levine is far from alone.

Haley’s campaign raised $5 million in a fundraising swing after her second-place finish in New Hampshire that included stops in Texas, Florida, New York, and California, Perez-Cubas said. Her campaign raised $11.5 million in January alone — her best fundraising month ever. Her allied super PAC brought in another $12 million over the same period.

In fact, Haley’s team actually outraised Trump’s last month, according to federal filings released late Tuesday.

Trump’s campaign raised $8.8 million in January, with his primary super PAC taking in another $7.3 million. A separate pro-Trump political action committee brought in another $5 million, but spent a big chunk on the former president’s legal fees.

Even with Haley’s newfound financial advantage, Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., the lone member of Congress who has endorsed Haley, acknowledged it may be difficult for her to win South Carolina, a state where she lives and served two terms as governor.

“Obviously, you want to win them all, but for those who say it’s going to embarrass her, or end her political career, I disagree. She’s willing to take that risk,” Norman said in an interview. “I think it’s a courageous thing she’s doing.”

Trump, in recent days, has shown flashes of fury in response to Haley’s refusal to cede the nomination.

He called her “stupid” and “birdbrain” in a social media post over the weekend as part of a sustained campaign of personal insults. Some primary voters said Trump crossed the line earlier in the month when he highlighted the absence of Haley’s husband, Michael, who is in the midst of a yearlong stint with the South Carolina Army National Guard to Africa.

In a rare show of emotion, Haley acknowledged the personal toll on her family.

“It was hard for us to say goodbye to him the first time when he deployed to Afghanistan. It was even harder last summer when he deployed to Africa,” she said with glassy eyes, her voice cracking.

Earlier in the speech, she insisted that she has “no fear of Trump’s retribution.”

“I feel no need to kiss the ring,” she said. “My own political future is of zero concern.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign chiefs released a memo describing Haley’s campaign as “broken down, out of ideas, out of gas, and completely outperformed by every measure, by Donald Trump.”

Eager to pivot toward a general election matchup against Biden, the former president is also taking aggressive steps to assume control of the Republican National Committee, the GOP’s nationwide political machine, which is supposed to stay neutral in presidential primary elections. Last week, Trump announced plans to install his campaign’s senior adviser Chris LaCivita as RNC’s chief operating officer and daughter-in-law Lara Trump as the committee’s co-chair.

There is every expectation that current Chair Ronna McDaniel will step down after Trump wins South Carolina’s primary and party officials will ultimately acquiesce to Trump’s wishes. Privately, Haley’s team concedes there is nothing it can do to stop the Trump takeover.

Former Republican presidential contender Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, said it was time for the party to unite behind Trump during an unrelated South Carolina appearance Tuesday.

“As far as I’m concerned, the primary’s over,” said DeSantis, who suspended his presidential bid last month after a disappointing finish in Iowa and quickly endorsed Trump.

In her interview, however, Haley warned her party against letting Trump raid the RNC’s coffers to pay for his legal fees while taking a short-term view of his political prospects.

Trump’s standing will fundamentally change if he is a convicted felon before Election Day, Haley said, acknowledging that such an outcome is a very real possibility as Trump navigates 91 felony charges across four separate criminal cases.

“He’s going to be in a courtroom all of March, April, May and June,” Haley said. “How in the world do you win a general election when these cases keep going and the judgments keep coming?”

Meanwhile, Biden was asked as he departed the White House on Tuesday whether he preferred to go up against Haley or Trump this fall.

“Oh, I don’t care,” the president said.

___

Peoples reported from Kiawah Island, South Carolina. AP writers James Pollard in Columbia, South Carolina, Jill Colvin in New York, Seung Min Kim in Washington and Thomas Beaumont in Des Moines, Iowa, contributed.

WASHINGTON— El ex vicepresidente estadounidense Joe Biden entró formalmente el jueves a la contienda para las elecciones presidenciales de 2020, declarando que el “alma de esta nación” estará en juego si el presidente Donald Trump lograra reelegirse.

En un video publicado el jueves en Twitter, Biden destacó el letal enfrentamiento de 2017 entre supremacistas blancos y opositores en Charlottesville, Virginia. Además, menciona los comentarios de Trump de que había “personas muy finas” en ambos lados del enfrentamiento, que dejó una mujer muerta.

“Estamos en una batalla por el alma de esta nación”, dijo Biden. “Si le damos a Donald Trump ocho años en la Casa Blanca, él alterará fundamentalmente y para siempre el carácter de esta nación, lo que somos. No puedo quedarme de pie viendo a que eso suceda”.

Biden, de 76 años, se convierte así en uno de los punteros de cara a las primarias demócratas junto con el senador por Vermont Bernie Sanders, quien ya encabeza varias encuestas y ha recaudado donaciones generosas. Entre los demócratas, Biden no tiene comparación en experiencia legislativa e internacional y es uno de los nombres más reconocidos en la política estadounidense. Rápidamente atrajo apoyos tras anunciar su candidatura el jueves.

Aun así, Biden deberá competir en un campo ocupado ahora por al menos 20 demócratas y que ha sido elogiado por su diversidad racial y de género, pero _como un hombre blanco de edad avanzada e ideas centristas que lleva medio siglo en Washington_ no está claro si podrá lograr el respaldo de un Partido Demócrata cada vez más progresista.

Biden también tiene todavía que aclarar sus posiciones en temas que definirán la primaria demócrata en 2020, por ejemplo “Medicare for All”, el programa de salud universal planteado por Sanders que han adoptado virtualmente todos los demócratas.

El originario de Scranton, Pennsylvania, apuesta a que su atractivo entre la clase trabajadora y sus vínculos con la presidencia de Obama le ayudarán a convencer a los escépticos.

Esta podría ser la última oportunidad del político de 76 años para intentar alcanzar un puesto que busca desde hace más de una generación. En sus dos campañas anteriores no tuvo éxito.

El ex vicepresidente enfrenta preguntas innumerables sobre su pasado, incluso recientes acusaciones de que manoseó a mujeres. Biden se ha comprometido a ser “mucho más considerado” con el respeto del espacio personal.

The 42-year-old Morgantown woman said she was both devastated and furious when Manchin became the only Democrat in the U.S. Senate to support President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh.

“I feel raped all over again,” Walker told The Associated Press.

A day after Manchin broke with his party on what may be the most consequential vote of the Trump era, the vulnerable Democrat is facing a political firestorm back home. While Republicans — including one of the president’s sons — are on the attack, the most passionate criticism is coming from Manchin’s very own Democratic base, a small but significant portion of the electorate he needs to turn out in force to win re-election next month. A Manchin loss would put his party’s hopes of regaining control of the Senate virtually out of reach.

Walker, a first-time Democratic candidate for the state legislature, said she may not vote at all in the state’s high-stakes Senate election. Julia Hamilton, a 30-year-old educator who serves on the executive committee of the Monongalia County Democratic Party, vowed to sit out the Senate race as well.

“At some point you have to draw a line,” Hamilton said. “I have heard from many, many people — especially women. They won’t be voting for Manchin either.”

Manchin defended his vote in a Sunday interview as being based on fact, not emotion. He praised the women who shared their stories of sexual trauma, Walker among them, but said he “could not find any type of link or connection” that Kavanaugh was a rapist.

The woman who testified to the Senate about Kavanaugh, Christine Blasey Ford, accused him of sexual assault but not rape when they were high school students more than 30 years ago. Two other women stepped forward late in the confirmation process to accuse the appeals court judge of sexual misconduct in high school or college. Their stories resonated with women who had suffered sexual trauma and fueled opposition to Kavanaugh’s confirmation.

“They weren’t going to be satisfied, or their healing process, until we convicted this person,” Manchin told The Associated Press. “I couldn’t do it. You talk about two wrongs trying to make a right. It just wasn’t in my heart and soul to do that.”

Manchin insisted over and over that his vote wasn’t based on politics.

There is little doubt, however, that his vote was in line with the wishes of many West Virginia voters, who gave Trump a victory in 2016 by 42 percentage points. There simply aren’t enough Democrats in the state to re-elect Manchin. He needs a significant chunk of Trump’s base to win.

One West Virginia Trump supporter, 74-year-old Linda Ferguson, explained the politics bluntly as she watched the parade at Saturday’s Mountain State Forest Festival in Elkins.

“If he didn’t vote for Kavanaugh he could have kissed his seat goodbye,” Ferguson said.

While he may have represented the majority of his state, Manchin’s political challenges are far from over.

The clash over Kavanaugh, who was confirmed by the Senate on Saturday, has injected new energy into each party’s political base. While that may help Democrats in their fight for the House majority, which is largely taking place in America’s suburbs, there are signs it’s hurting vulnerable Democrats in rural Republican-leaning states like North Dakota, Missouri and West Virginia. Phil Bredesen, who said he would have voted for Kavanaugh, could also face new challenges in his bid to flip Tennessee’s Senate seat to the Democratic column.

For much of the year, Manchin has held a significant lead in public and private polls over his Republican opponent, state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. Yet Republican operatives familiar with the race report a definite tightening over the last week.

In an interview, Morrisey called Democrats’ fight against Kavanaugh a “three-ring circus” that “energized a lot of people in West Virginia.”

He acknowledged that Manchin voted the right way for the state, but called the vote “irrelevant” because another swing vote, Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins, had already given Kavanaugh the final vote he needed.

“He waited until the last possible minute after Susan Collins declared for him to take a position, effectively allowing Maine to decide how West Virginia’s going to decide,” Morrisey charged. “We shouldn’t reward that kind of cowardice.”

Echoing the attack, Donald Trump Jr., mockingly called Manchin “a real profile in courage” on Twitter.

When asked about the social media jab, the West Virginia senator slapped away the insult from the younger Trump.

Donald Trump Jr. is “entitled to his opinion, he’s just not entitled to his own facts to justify what he’s saying. He doesn’t really know anything,” Manchin told the AP.

The Democrat conceded that he followed Collins’ lead out of “respect” — he didn’t want to get in the way of her high-profile Friday afternoon announcement on the Senate floor.

“Nothing would have changed my vote,” Manchin declared. “Susan took the lead, Susan did the due diligence. … She’s going to give her speech and I’m not going to jump in front of 3 o’clock. I’m just not going to do it.”

That wasn’t good enough for Tammy Means, a 57-year-old florist from Charleston, who was among thousands tailgating outside West Virginia University’s football stadium in Morgantown on Saturday.

Means, a registered Democrat who voted for Trump, said she also voted for Manchin in the past.

“I’m not going to anymore. Nope,” she said with a laugh as she sipped a Smirnoff Ice. She’s glad Manchin voted for Kavanaugh, but said, “He’s just doing it so he can get elected.”

Across the parking lot, 63-year-old John Vdovjac said he was deeply disappointed by Manchin’s vote. Still, the Democrat said he’d probably vote for Manchin this fall.

“I recognize the position he’s in because the state’s heavily Republican now,” said Vdovjac, a retired educator from Wheeling, as he helped grill hotdogs and hamburgers. “But he’s lost my loyalty.

Manchin knows he needs to explain his vote to his constituents, although he didn’t have any public events scheduled this weekend. Before and after the AP interview, conducted at Charleston’s International House of Pancakes, he told everyone who would listen — including his waitress — that his Kavanaugh vote was not based on emotion.

“I made my decision based on facts,” the senator told Kevin Estep, a 57-year-old registered Democrat and Trump voter who was eating buttered pancakes with his family.

“You hang in there and vote your heart,” Estep, who lives in nearby St. Albans, told the senator.

After Manchin left the building, Estep warned that the #MeToo movement “is like a dam that’s about to break open.”

Asked whether he’d support Manchin this fall, he responded, “Always.”

“It’s a strategy that’s working,” he said.

If farmers are worried, so are Republican politicians, who depended on small-town America to hand them control of Congress and know how quickly those voters could take it away. Just seven months before the 2018 midterm elections, Trump’s faceoff with China over trade has exposed an unexpected political vulnerability in what was supposed to be the Republican Party’s strongest region: rural America.

The clash with China poses a direct threat to the economies in both red and blue states, from California’s central valley to eastern Washington through Minnesota’s plains and across Missouri and Indiana and into Ohio.

They are regions in which the GOP’s quest to retain its House and Senate majorities this fall is tied directly to Republican voters’ views about their pocketbooks and Trump’s job performance. The signs of fear and frustration about both are easy to find.

In southwestern Minnesota, soybean farmer Bill Gordon says the volatility in the markets makes it harder for farmers like him to market their crop and lock in profitability. The state is the country’s fourth-largest exporting state, and the state’s top farm export market is China.

A Trump voter, Gordon said right now he’s disappointed, not angry, over what’s happening. But the trade tensions could affect his vote in the open race for the region’s congressional seat, where the farm vote is significant.

“I vote for the people who represent rural America,” he said. “It’s not a party line.”

Trump says he’s simply fighting against unfair business practices with a geopolitical rival.

After the Trump administration announced plans to impose tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese imports Tuesday, China lashed back within hours, matching the American tariffs with plans to tax $50 billion of U.S. products, including soybeans, corn and wheat.

Trump escalated the standoff further on Thursday by asking the U.S. trade representative to consider $100 billion in additional tariffs against China, which had previously released plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on frozen pork, nuts and wine in response to Trump’s intent to apply duties to imported aluminum and steel.

The soybean industry, perhaps more than any other, illustrates the potential harm to Republican candidates in the fall.

Soy production is concentrated in the Midwest. Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Indiana and Missouri account for over half of all soy produced in the United States. And more than 60 percent of U.S. soy exports have been sent to mainland China in recent years.

Trump won 89 percent of America’s counties that produce soy, according to an Associated Press analysis of Agriculture Department and election data. In those counties, on average, two out of three voters supported Trump in 2016.

Many Republican candidates who represent rural areas Trump won in 2016 are being forced to choose between his trade policies and community interests. Vulnerable Republicans are walking a tightrope.

In eastern Washington, seven-term Republican Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers had already found herself in an unexpectedly tight race. She has urged the White House to “reverse course” on the Chinese tariffs in recent days.

Jared Powell, a spokesman for McMorris Rodgers, said her office had asked the Trump administration for clarification on the effects of the tariffs.

“She is doing what she can to speak out publicly,” Powell said.

Overall, an estimated 2.1 million jobs could be affected by the trade dispute nationally, with a majority coming from counties that Trump won, according to an analysis by Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution.

“We’re in kind of a farm crisis,” said Bob Worth, who grows soybeans, corn and spring wheat with his son on 2,200 acres (3.4 square miles) near Lake Benton in southwestern Minnesota. He wouldn’t say how he voted in 2016, but he offered kind, if measured, words for Trump.

“I’m going to believe in the man,” added Worth, who’s also on the board of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association. “He’s doing this for business reasons only. I don’t know if he knows how much he’s hurting agriculture.”

Matt Aultman, a grain salesman and feed nutritionist in Greenville, Ohio, west of Columbus, said farmers there are keeping a close watch on the talk in Washington. Farmers pay attention to two things: prices and weather. And a trade fight that affects prices won’t go unnoticed.

“It directly affects our pocketbooks and the way we plan for the following years,” he said. “Are we going to pay all the bills this year? Are we going to buy a new piece of equipment? Do you get your kids a couple new pair of shoes?”

In California’s central valley, Republican Rep. Jeff Denham has avoided the issue altogether in recent days. His opponent, Democrat and longtime family farmer Michael Eggman, said Trump’s trade policies would shatter his community.

The district is home to Blue Diamond Almonds, among smaller nut producers, who send much of their product to China and suddenly face the prospect of 15 percent tariffs.

“We all know how hard it is to make ends meet as a small family farmer, and Trump is not making it easier,” Eggman said. “Jeff Denham, who claims to be a local farmer, hasn’t said one word about it. Where’s the outrage?”

Denham, through a spokeswoman, did not address the president’s moves directly but said the congressman supports “free and fair trade” and a plan that’s “carefully thought out.”

Nick Geranios, Steve Peoples and Steve Karnowski are Associated Press reporters. Larry Fenn in Seattle contributed to this report.

“It has not been in my plans to run for president, but I have not ruled it out,” the 55-year-old Republican said Friday in his first solo political appearance in New Hampshire. The state is expected to host the nation’s first presidential primary election in less than two years.

He continued: “I hope that that someone does run in the Republican primary, somebody to challenge the president. I think that the Republicans want to be reminded what it means to be a traditional, decent Republican.”

After attacking Trump in a speech that spanned nearly 20 minutes, Flake earned a standing ovation from the packed room that gathered for the esteemed “Politics and Eggs” speaker series at Saint Anselm College.

Flake is among a very small group of Republican elected officials speaking out against the Trump presidency with increasing alarm.

He has already written a book that slams Trump, condemned Trump on the Senate floor and charged in a speech on Thursday at the National Press Club that his party “might not deserve to lead” because of its blind loyalty to Trump. By visiting New Hampshire, Flake is now declaring the possibility of another tactic: a 2020 primary challenge.

On the ground in the Granite State, a full year before presidential candidates typically begin courting local voters, there is already an expectation among top Republicans that Trump will face a challenge from within his own party in the next presidential contest. Yet few think Trump could be defeated, even under the worst circumstances.

Steve Duprey, who represents New Hampshire at the Republican National Committee, said: “It’s virtually impossible to beat an incumbent for the nomination. But that doesn’t prevent people from trying with various degrees of seriousness.”

“I think there will be some primary,” he added. “Whether it’s a serious contender or a protest candidate that the president’s team would have to take seriously, it’s too early to tell.”

Despite Flake’s fiery pronouncements, he would start out as an underwhelming presidential contender on paper.

He is not well-known, he has little money of his own and a disdain for fundraising, and because he is retiring from the Senate at year’s end, he has no political organization to help fuel his ambitions.

Flake has powerful friends who could help, however, including the outspoken anti-Trump billionaire Mark Cuban.

“I’m a Jeff Flake fan,” Cuban told The Associated Press.

The billionaire, who is considering a presidential bid of his own, acknowledged that he doesn’t know much about Flake’s political ambitions. “But as a citizen of this great country, the more candidates for the office of president the better,” Cuban said.

Former New Hampshire GOP chair Jennifer Horn, a frequent Trump critic, said the GOP’s struggles in recent special elections — in addition to Trump’s near-daily struggles — make a primary challenge in 2020 more realistic than ever before.

“There is a path, there is a possibility, but it’s such a narrow path that it’s hard to see who the right person would be,” she said, acknowledging she didn’t know Flake very well yet.

In an interview with The Associated Press on the eve of his Friday speech, Flake acknowledged Trump was probably too popular among the Republican base to lose a Republican primary in the current political climate.

“Not today, but two years from now, possibly. Things can unravel pretty fast,” Flake said, suggesting that a disastrous midterm election season for the GOP could realign voter loyalty. “As soon as he’s viewed as one who loses majorities in the House and the Senate, and there’s no chance that someone in the 30s can win re-election, people might move on.”

And if Trump’s standing with the base doesn’t fade, Flake would consider a presidential bid as an independent. As presidential candidates like Ralph Nader and Ross Perot have shown in the past, a third-party candidate can profoundly impact a presidential contest even drawing only a fraction of the general election vote in a few key states.

“I’m not ruling that out either,” Flake said. “There are going to be a lot of other people in the party looking for something else.”

He continued, “If you end up with Trump on one side, (Bernie) Sanders or (Elizabeth) Warren on the other, there’s a huge swath of voters in the middle that make an independent run by somebody a lot more realistic.”

Trump has a special relationship with New Hampshire.

The state gave him his first victory of the 2016 Republican primary season. He earned 35 percent of the vote compared with second-place finisher John Kasich, the Ohio governor who is also weighing a 2020 run.

And on Monday, just three days after Flake’s visit, Trump is expected to make his first appearance in the state since winning the 2016 election.

Flake wants New Hampshire voters to know there’s another option.

“This has been my party my entire life. I’m not willing to concede that this is permanent,” he said. He added, “We will get through this.”

A pesar de esto, para los demócratas en los estados que votan primero y quizá para la población que en su mayoría no aprueba el desempeño del presidente Donald Trump, la idea de una figura mediática popular como candidata presidencial no es tan extraña como alguna vez pareció, sobre todo ante el hecho de que el empresario neoyorquino de bienes raíces y astro de reality shows está ahora en la Casa Blanca.

“Mira, es ridículo, y lo entiendo. Pero al mismo tiempo la política es ridícula en este momento”, dijo el operador demócrata de Iowa Brad Anderson, un excandidato estatal quien también estuvo a cargo de la campaña de reelección del presidente Barack Obama en 2012 en Iowa.

El discurso de Winfrey al aceptar el domingo el premio Cecil B. DeMille a la trayectoria, abordó sus orígenes humildes y la admiración que le provocaban durante la infancia los defensores de los derechos civiles.

Pero fue su exhortación a las legiones de mujeres que han denunciado a acosadores sexuales y su sueño de que llegue el día en que “nadie tenga que decir de nuevo ‘a mí también’” que ha hecho que algunos operadores políticos en estados que votarán primero, como Iowa y New Hampshire, piensen que Winfrey podría ser lo que los demócratas necesitan.

“Creo que necesitamos más modelos como ella que le hablan a las mujeres jóvenes y tratan de restaurar algo de esperanza. La elección de Donald Trump fue un devastador revés para las niñas”, dijo Liz Purdy, quien encabezó la campaña de Hillary Clinton para las elecciones primarias del Partido Demócrata en 2008.

La aprobación al desempeño de Trump era de 32% en diciembre, de acuerdo con un sondeo de The Associated Press y NORC. Aunque las encuestas muestran que su aprobación ha aumentado ligeramente desde entonces, Trump es el presidente menos popular en su primer año de mandato desde que se llevan registros.

También ha sido acusado por múltiples mujeres de incurrir en conducta sexual inapropiada, aunque el mandatario ha negado vehementemente las acusaciones.

En septiembre y octubre, Winfrey rechazó públicamente la idea de aspirar a la presidencia, aunque señaló que la victoria de Trump le hizo repensar los requisitos para asumir el cargo.

El lunes, un representante de Winfrey no respondió a una solicitud de The Associated Press para conocer sus comentarios. La pareja de Winfrey por años, Stedman Graham, dijo al periódico Los Angeles Times que “depende de la gente” si ella será presidenta, y agregó: “Definitivamente lo haría”.

Winfrey, de 64 años, se ha convertido en un fenómeno cultural en los últimos 30 años. Nació en una familia pobre de Mississippi pero logró el éxito como presentadora de televisión y programas de entrevistas. Por más de tres décadas se convirtió en el rostro de los programas de tertulia, actuó en cine, produjo películas y comenzó su propio canal de televisión.

El mismo Trump ha elogiado a Winfrey a lo largo de los años, incluyendo una vez en 2015, cuando dijo que la consideraría como una compañera en su campaña republicana. “Me gusta Oprah”, dijo Trump a ABC News en junio de 2015. “Creo que Oprah sería genial, me encantaría tener a Oprah. Creo que ganaríamos fácilmente de hecho”.

Trump hizo comentarios similares en 1999, cuando sopesaba una posible candidatura presidencial en el Partido Reformista. “Si ella lo hace sería fantástica. Ella es popular, es brillante y es una mujer maravillosa”, dijo Trump a CNN.

Algunos consideran que ella tiene lo que se necesita para ser un candidato presidencia viable.

“Sería una candidata seria”, dijo Jennifer Palmieri, ex directora de comunicaciones de la Casa Blanca durante la presidencia de Barack Obama y directora de comunicaciones de la campaña de Hillary Clinton en 2016.

Más allá de su ascenso desde la pobreza, el éxito de Winfrey como una figura multidimensional se ha debido a su apoyo a maneras en las que las mujeres se pueden reafirmar, típicamente fuera de la política. Esto podría suavizar lo que Palmieri describe como la resistencia de algunos votantes a las mujeres con ambición política.

“Creo que las lecciones que todos aprendimos de la campaña de Hillary y de cómo su ambición fue vista desfavorable e injustamente, se suman a la popularidad de Oprah y le podría dar a Oprah un buen comienzo”, dijo Palmieri.

Está además el peso político que Winfrey pudiese tener. Ella participó en un acto político de Iowa para el entonces senador Barack Obama en las semanas previas a su sorpresiva victoria en las nominaciones estatales de 2008, que ayudaron a propulsarlo a la nominación presidencial.

A pesar de esto, algunos demócratas adoptarían el estatus de celebridad ajena a la política de Winfrey como la respuesta del partido a Trump, aunque la líder de la minoría Nancy Pelosi, también señaló que Winfrey, como Trump, no tiene ningún tipo de experiencia en el gobierno.

“Creo que uno de los argumentos a favor de Oprah es el 45″, dijo Pelosi en referencia a Trump, quien es el presidente 45. ” Creo que uno de los argumentos en contra de Oprah también es el 45″.

___

Steve Peoples reportó desde Nueva York. El periodista de The Associated Press Andrew Taylor contribuyó a este despacho desde Washington.

Los demócratas ganaron elecciones regionales en Virginia, Nueva Jersey y Maine, asestando un serio revés a los republicanos y a las políticas de Donald Trump.

En Virginia, el demócrata Ralph Northam fue elegido gobernador sobre el republicano Ed Gillespie.

Northam, un neurólogo pediatra de profesión, exclamó: “Estoy aquí para decirles que ha llegado el doctor. Mientras yo sea gobernador, trabajaré arduamente para asegurar que reine la tolerancia”.

Añadió que “el pueblo de Virginia le dice no a las divisiones, no al odio y al racismo, y sí a poner fin a la política de hostilidad que ha desgarrado a nuestro país”.

Los demócratas además lograron las gobernaciones de Nueva Jersey y Maine, donde los votantes además le asestaron un golpe al gobernador republicano, aliado de Trump, aprobando una medida que ampliará el programa Medicaid bajo la ley de salud impulsada por el gobierno de Barack Obama. Además ganaron reelección holgadamente los alcaldes demócratas de Nueva York y Boston, ambos duros críticos de Trump.

Además en Virginia, por primera vez en la historia de ese estado, fue elegido una legisladora abiertamente transgénero, parte de una ola de más de una docena de victorias legislativas para los demócratas.

Las contundentes victorias marcaron la derrota más significativa para los republicanos y para la joven presidencia de Trump, y les presentan con un sombrío panorama de cara a las elecciones legislativas del año entrante.

“¡El Partido Demócrata está de vuelta, amigos!”, exclamó el director de Comité Nacional Demócrata, Tom Pérez.

Entretanto, los republicanos caían en un agrio espiral de acusaciones mutuas.

“Ed Gillespie trabajó arduamente pero no me apoyaba ni apoyaba mis políticas”, tuiteó Trump desde Asia, donde se encuentra en gira, recordando que los republicanos ganaron unas cuantas elecciones regionales hace unos meses. “¡Con esta economía que va por niveles récord, seguiremos ganando, mucho más que nunca!”

En realidad Gillespie expresó varias veces su apoyo a Trump y a sus políticas, si bien no lo invitó al estado a participar en concentraciones de campaña.

El rol de Trump fue insignificante en Virginia, en gran parte porque los militantes republicanos no lo querían allí, en un estado que perdió en las elecciones presidenciales, en medio de bajísimos índices de apoyo. La Casa Blanca sí despachó al vicepresidente Mike Pence a hacer campaña con Gillespie y Trump prometió que el gobernador haría “grande a Estados Unidos” en un mensaje grabado enviado por teléfono a los votantes.

Gillespie, quien fue allegado del presidente George W. Bush y del entonces candidato presidencial republicano Mitt Romney, en esta campaña se volvió un ávido partidario de las políticas de Trump teñidas de nacionalismo y visos de racismo. Advirtió ominosamente sobre los peligros de la pandilla centroamericana MS-13. Además juró proteger las estatuas confederadas y despotricó contra los atletas que han estado protestando contra la injusticia social hincándose al entonar el himno nacional, y que son en su mayoría de raza negra.

“As much as I like coming here, I love going home even more,” Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker said during a recent speech delivered just a block from the White House.

Yet those same governors, even as they profess to loathe the nation’s capital, have become regular visitors. They come to woo veteran policy advisers, experienced operatives and savvy donors who would serve as the backbone of their nascent White House campaigns. At least four potential candidates — Walker, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry — have been in town in the past week alone.

“If you want to participate at the federal level, you have to be here in Washington,” said Adam Brandon, executive vice president of libertarian-leaning lobbying group FreedomWorks.

Pence’s visit started this week with a closed-door fundraiser for the Republican Governors Association and private meetings with former colleagues in Congress. He then went on to jab Washington while testifying before a House committee.

“I would say, with the deepest respect to my former colleagues, that I am persuaded, having spent 12 years in Congress and two years as a governor, that the cure for what ails this country will come as much from our nation’s state capitals as it ever will from our nation’s capital,” Pence told the House Committee on Education and the Workforce.

Pence was more aggressive in a brief interview, charging that Washington leaders seem “incapable of solving” major problems.

Pete Seat, an Indiana-based Republican strategist who worked in President George W. Bush’s White House, said “there’s an appetite out there for a contrast between Washington and the states.”

It’s an idea that has existed for some time, and a message that previous candidates — even those with day jobs in Washington — have used before.

Barack Obama, then a first-term senator, won in 2008 with a promise to change the nation’s politics. Then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush won in 2000 by promising to bring heartland values to Washington and turn the page on the scandals of Bill Clinton’s presidency. Then-Arkansas Gov. Clinton won his 1992 campaign with his pledge, “It’s time to change America.”

Walker is little different. His campaign-in-waiting is called “Our American Revival,” and its message to voters and donors begins, “government closest to the people is the most responsive and accountable to the people,” and scorns “federal overreach” that “infringes on our American freedoms and values.”

Yet Washington is where Walker was last week, spending Saturday night at the annual dinner of the exceptionally exclusive Alfalfa Club, an invitation-only affair for Washington’s most well-connected. His trip largely amounted to three days of job interviews — both with those he is seeking to hire, as well as for himself before deep-pocketed donors.

Case in point: Walker’s political action committee in recent days has hired the Republican National Committee’s press secretary, Washington-area polling firm the Tarrance Group and former RNC political director Rick Wiley.

Perry attacked Washington in an early television ad produced by his political action committee: “Conservative leadership is putting people back to work, and families are building their futures,” he said. “We need more of that and less of Washington.”

Perry arrived in Washington on Tuesday night and leaves Friday morning, although with only one public event on his schedule: the keynote address at the annual gala of the conservative think tank American Principles Project. The rest of the time was largely devoted to private meetings with political operatives.

Perry on Thursday named more than 80 major donors to his political action committee’s advisory board, a significant show of strength in the midst of his Washington swing. The group includes some of the biggest donors in Republican politics, a group spread across the country, but with extensive ties in the nation’s capital.

Jindal addressed the American Principles Project’s Thursday luncheon at Washington’s Mayflower Hotel, charging that Washington has expanded federal programs and that lawmakers from both parties have shifted power to Washington at the expense of states.

Railing against “government elites,” the Louisiana governor pointedly criticized Common Core education standards, adopted voluntarily by many states and loathed by conservatives.

“I have more faith in the moms than I do in any collection of bureaucrats,” Jindal said, overstating Washington’s role in the standards. “They think they know better than you. They think you’re not smart enough to educate your children.”