You may have been frustrated lately by financial institutions requiring two-factor authentication to log into your account. Instead of just requiring a username and password, they now send you a text message by SMS to your cell phone in to verify your identity with a six-digit PIN that you must enter to gain access.

But what if the number attached to your SIM card on your phone is itself stolen? You have your cell phone in your hand, but someone has gained enough information about you to contact the phone company, transferring your phone number into a phone sitting in their hand!

If it sounds impossible, think again. The FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center (www.IC3.gov) has seen a growing number of SIM swap fraud reports. It has happened to famous people, including television producer Andy Cohen (who told his story on “The Today Show”), and countless other victims, with reported losses in the millions.

Once a scam artist electronically transfers your phone SIM card, that two-factor authentication PIN goes to his phone — not yours. And when the thief confirms the transaction, all your money is wired out of your account to his account!

Even worse, when you finally wake up to the lost money, the bank says you are not covered for fraud, since they sent you a PIN and you (or in this case, the fraudster) entered the PIN, thereby “participating” in the fraud. They deny your claim — and your money is lost!

Here’s how it works

It’s easier than you think to get enough information about you to have your SIM card transferred electronically from your phone to another. You do it every time you upgrade and get a new phone.

But if your personal information (such as your pet’s name, street address or even your bridal registry) is easily searchable online, you could become a victim. The cybercriminal’s goal is to pretend they’re you by using that information to trick your cell phone service provider into granting access to your phone number and account. Then it’s as simple as porting your SIM to their device.

Then they call the phone company pretending to be you, saying your phone is lost, and asking to transfer your SIM to the new phone they are holding. Or, according to the FBI, they may bribe or blackmail low-level employees in telephone stores to transfer the numbers to new SIMs.

Once they control your phone number, it’s open sesame for all your financial accounts.

How to protect yourself

—Download an authentication app for your cell phone. Microsoft and Google offer them, as do many other companies. Since the app resides on your phone, the fraudsters cannot access it. You’ll have to set up two-factor authentication for that website — and then use this program instead of a SMS text message.

—Ask your cellphone provider to require extra steps for verification, such as a “SIM PIN,” before allowing your phone number to be ported. That is a multi-digit code that you’ll need any time you want to move your number to a new phone. Without the PIN, your number stays put.

—Use the “strong password” option that generates a random password for each of your accounts. Then store it in a “password manager” program such as Aura, Keeper or Dashlane. (Search for these apps and download them.) Then you only need to remember the main password that accesses your stored passwords.

Sadly, you can easily and inexpensively get all this sophisticated protection, but it won’t work if your financial institution insists on sending SMS text messages and doesn’t allow you to use an authenticator app. FBI Special Agent Ali Sadiq of the Cyber Criminal Investigative Squad says: “Banks need to catch up with best authentication practices — unfortunately, they are all still using SIM texts. Your email account that requires an authenticator may have far better security than your bank account.”

Still, it’s worth trying to derail the SIM swappers. Agent Sadiq reminds us: “You don’t need perfect security to avoid being victimized. By using something as simple as stronger authentication on your online accounts, criminals will likely skip over you and move to lower hanging fruit.” Well, I hope that’s The Savage Truth.

(Terry Savage is a registered investment adviser and the author of four best-selling books, including “The Savage Truth on Money.” Terry responds to questions on her blog at TerrySavage.com.)

Insurance companies have indeed been hit with more catastrophic losses in recent years. Some of it is related to climate change. Even though hurricane and earthquake coverage are not part of traditional homeowner’s insurance (and must be covered by separate policies), there are rising claims from wind and wind-driven water damage, as well as from hail.

Wildfires in California and tornadoes in the nation’s midsection have caused major losses. And the amount that insurers must shell out for construction costs to replace the insured property has soared with inflation. No wonder there are staggering premium increases. And no wonder that insurers are actually leaving some states where the risks are highest — or where state legislatures have demanded premium increase limitations.

According to the New York Times, “The data show that homeowners insurance was unprofitable in 18 states last year, up from eight in 2013.” For example, in Illinois, the study shows insurers have made money on homeowners coverage in just three of the past seven years. The state was affected by nine separate billion-dollar disasters last year, according to NOAA data, including seven severe storms.

If you want to see the statistics on state-by-state insurance losses, this link will let you search for your own state’s risk profile.

While there are good reasons for raising premiums, the insurance companies have been reporting rising profits, as well. Stocks of insurers like Allstate and Travelers are trading near all-time highs. It makes you think you should have bought the stocks as a hedge against your insurance bill!

What can you do?

When you get your much-higher property insurance bill, you have limited options. These include:

—Contact your insurer. Even if your bill is bundled with your mortgage payment, you can still ask them to verify their billing decision, based on your good payment record. Be prepared for no sympathy — but it’s worth a try.

—Compare premiums with other insurers. Several websites including TheZebra.com and HomeownersInsuranceCompare.com allow you to search online. But be prepared for a deluge of contacts from agents. And you may find that the “best” insurers aren’t taking on new customers, making it advisable to stick with the company with which you’ve built a track record. Also, if you change, your premiums could soar even more next year at the new company.

—Raise your deductible. If you’re wiling to shoulder more of the risk, you can significantly lower the premium. A higher deductible will be costly for a relatively minor event — but then you probably weren’t going to report it to your insurer anyway, for fear of a premium increase!

The most startling response I’ve seen is people simply dropping their homeowner’s coverage completely! Currently, about 7.5% of homeowners are uninsured — with a higher proportion in minority or low-income communities.

Going without homeowner’s insurance is a bet that you simply don’t want to take with your largest and most important possession!

First, if you have a mortgage, going without insurance is not an option. Your mortgage lender will demand proof of insurance or require the payment be made along with your mortgage payment. So you simply can’t cancel.

But even if your home is fully paid (nearly 40% of U. S homes are mortgage-free), going without insurance can be devastating to your future. You may think a tornado or fire is a long-shot that you’re willing to take without insurance. But your homeowner’s insurance is also the basis for your liability insurance — which protects you if someone is hurt on your property or sues for some other reason.

The whole point of insurance is to protect against those “long shot” events! And those rising premiums are evidence that the smart-money actuaries who work for the insurance companies believe the risks are rising. Betting against them by going uncovered is not a smart move. And that’s The Savage Truth.

(Terry Savage is a registered investment adviser and the author of four best-selling books, including “The Savage Truth on Money.” Terry responds to questions on her blog at TerrySavage.com.)

Here are some key details on how reverse mortgages work:

—You can withdraw either a lump sum, use a line of credit, or receive monthly payments — tax free — out of the equity you have built up on your home.

—Most importantly, you can never run out of money or home equity, or be forced out of your home because of those withdrawals.

—When you sell your home or die, the amount you have withdrawn plus interest and fees, is taken out of the proceeds, with the balance going back to you or your heirs. If no equity is left, neither you nor your heirs owe any money.

—The standard home-equity conversion mortgage (HECM) is available to homeowners age 62 or older who have either paid off their mortgage or have a small remaining balance. The reverse mortgage is first used to pay off the mortgage balance.

—The amount you can receive is determined by your age, the value of your home and current interest rates. The older you are, the more money you get!

—You don’t need a credit check to qualify, and you retain title to your home.

—You remain responsible for property taxes, insurance and general upkeep of the home. So the lender will want to see evidence that you have enough ongoing income to do that.

—You must have independent counseling from an independent HUD-certified housing counselor before a reverse mortgage will be granted.

Other considerations

Basically, it’s that simple. Your house will become your piggy bank pension for tax-free withdrawals in your retirement. But there are some other things to think about before taking on a reverse mortgage:

—How long will you really stay in your home? At a minimum, the answer should be five years, but it’s better if your time horizon is 10 years. That’s because there are significant fees to set up a reverse mortgage, which are built into your line of credit. It’s just not worth it if you won’t be able to keep up with rising property taxes or might need assisted living in the near horizon.

—Would you be better off selling your home now, in a rising price environment, and banking the cash — or using it to move into a continuing care community, where your future health needs can be accommodated? It’s a tough call to leave the family home, but better to make that decision while you have flexibility.

—Can you manage the lump sum? Almost all reverse mortgages these days give a lump sum or line of credit, which you can use to repair the roof or replace the furnace or maintain your lifestyle. But since very few reverse mortgages now offer lifetime monthly payments, you might find yourself forced to move when the line of credit runs out!

Comparing lenders

Once you’ve thought through the implications for your own future lifestyle, you can begin to compare offerings from various lenders. You’ll want a standard FHA home equity conversion mortgage (HECM), not a product from a private lender that might seem more attractive but that doesn’t have federal guarantees that they’ll be around to pay out on your line of credit.

There are differences in the terms HECM lenders may offer.

—Consider the interest rates being charged. Almost every reverse mortgage these days charges an adjustable rate, pegged to an index of Treasury rates. Some lenders charge a higher “margin” over the index, while some charge lower rates but build in higher fees!

—Compare the origination fees. Those fees are capped at $6,000 per mortgage, but many lenders advertise lower or even zero fees to set up your reverse mortgage. (They are building their profit into the interest rate charged.)

—Compare the total amount of equity they calculate you can withdraw from your home.

You must do your homework in this process and not just fall for the glossy brochure in the mail. Start at ReverseMortgage.org, where you can search for an HECM lender in your state and use their online calculator to get a rough idea of how much money you could get in a lump sum or line of credit. They also have a link to HUD-approved independent counselors.

Don’t be deterred by the complexity of the process, or the painful discussions about mortality that underlie this decision. A reverse mortgage can be a helpful solution if done correctly. And that’s The Savage Truth.

(Terry Savage is a registered investment adviser and the author of four best-selling books, including “The Savage Truth on Money.” Terry responds to questions on her blog at TerrySavage.com.)

So, it stands to reason that the 2020 Census Bureau reports that there were 11,271,000 widows in the United States at the time of the survey and only 3,487,000 widowers.

Grieving widows outnumber widowers by a ratio of 3:1.

And that’s the starting point for the new sixth edition of “On Your Own: A Widow’s Guide to Emotional and Financial Well-Being” by Alexandra Armstrong, CFP, and Mary R.Donahue, PhD. I praised this book when the first edition came out in 1993, saying on the cover: “If a woman you know is widowed, don’t send flowers — send this book!” And that recommendation is still on the cover of this latest updated version.

Alexandra Armstrong has been a legendary Washington, D.C.-based financial planner since we first met years ago through the International Women’s Forum. Her firm currently manages more than $1 billion in assets, much though certainly not all of it, owned by women. Her co-author, Mary Donahue, is an expert in grief and the emotional aspects of widowhood.

Both women experienced the impact of widowhood at an early age. At the age of 8, Alex watched her mother struggle after her father’s death. Mary was quite unexpectedly widowed at age 47, leaving her with two young daughters. Their personal experiences informed their career choices and their desire to help others.

As they write in the preface: “Our book reflects our strong belief that there is a connection between your financial recovery and your psychological recovery.” So the book is a skillfully interwoven story of both the grieving process and financial decision-making issues that confront widows of every age and situation, whether the death was from a long illness or a sudden shock.

There’s a lot that’s new in this edition, the first in many years. There’s new technology in financial planning, as well as updates in the tax laws. You’ll even find advice and warnings about online dating! But perhaps the most personal update is the fact that Alex herself became a widow in 2023, after 28 years of marriage.

The personal stories of the authors are as compelling as the four “widows” they profile — Diane, Susan, Audrey and Elizabeth. These are composite profiles illustrating some of the most painful decisions widows must make on their path to a new and different life, financially and emotionally

This is not a book about “happy endings,” although these women each find new purpose in life. It is really a book that acknowledges that no two widows follow the same path. And it’s not just intended for widows, I think. It could serve well for their adult children, to help them understand the process of moving into a new life situation, or divorcing women as they react financially and emotionally to the end of a “happily ever after” dream.

And I highly recommend this book on a personal note. In recent years I have seen too many of my dear friends become widows. Several of these were high-achieving and powerful women, running huge organizations and often honored for their accomplishments. Some were married to equally powerful men, and others had spouses who supported their careers behind the scenes.

If anyone could get through the shock of widowhood, I thought, these women could power through it. They have multiple friends and few financial problems, and were respected by all. Yet I saw each of them retreat into grief, stumble into financial dependence on their spouse’s advisers and seemingly abandon their life momentum, melting into a puddle of insecurity.

Despite my best efforts to get them “financially organized” and into control of their considerable assets, their lack of energy was shocking to me. But then I haven’t gone through that. Only on reading this latest edition of “On Your Own” did the pieces suddenly fall into place. Each widow grieves in her own way, and emerges from the grief on her own timetable. This book is designed to help in ways that well-meaning friends cannot.

So I renew my endorsement: If someone you know is widowed, don’t send flowers — send this book. And that’s The Savage Truth.

(Terry Savage is a registered investment adviser and the author of four best-selling books, including “The Savage Truth on Money.” Terry responds to questions on her blog at TerrySavage.com.)

©2024 Terry Savage. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Long gone are the days when women were patronized with a “Don’t worry your pretty little head, dear” attitude. Yes, that really was the norm a half-century ago. But we’ve come a long way. The new Allianz study reveals that:

—More than half (51%) of women say they are more financially savvy than their spouse or partner, up from 46% in 2021, when the survey was last conducted.

—49% of women consider themselves to be the chief financial officer of their household, up from 41% in 2021.

—42% of women say they are the primary breadwinner in their family, up from 34% in 2021, with more than half of millennials claiming that title.

Yes, the times are changing rapidly for women and money and power. And spreading the word about those changes should be an incentive for other women to take their own financial power for their own benefit. The financial services industry has long recognized the potent economic force women play in the economy.

Some of the most recent changes may have come about because of the pandemic. With two spouses often working in the home, there was more sharing of household duties and child rearing, along with financial planning. And some of the changes may come from demographics — with younger couples starting into marriage or life partnerships after having developed their own careers, retirement plans and financial abilities.

But far too many women in the boomer generation are still reliant on spouses or patronizing financial advisers when it comes to money management and investment advice. Since women live longer on average (see my recent column on longevity), it only stands to reason that women should immediately recognize the importance of seeking out education on those topics.

I receive so many posts on my AskTerry blog at TerrySavage.com from women of this generation who ask for advice because their late husband used to “take care of all that.” But it’s not just an age issue. Younger women raising children are often “too busy to handle those details.” Thus, when it comes to making a will or revocable living trust — an essential for young families — they are often reduced to “signing at the X” on documents they never fully read.

Yes, couples share responsibilities — and some are better at certain tasks. If your husband was a gourmet chef, the mealtime responsibilities would likely fall to him. But, you would still need to know the basics of cooking. Same thing with money. It might not be your “thing,” but you do need to know the basics of your financial situation!

Remember that you need is to be financially empowered within any relationship you might have — whether a spouse, partner or roommate. Ask yourself these questions:

—If my partner was in a coma from a tragic accident, would I know where all the financial accounts are? And, more importantly, do I have the written power to act if he/she cannot sign documents?

—If my partner were to die suddenly, do I know where his/her retirement accounts are — and importantly, am I named as the beneficiary?

—Do I own the life insurance policy on his/her life (as well as being the beneficiary) so changes cannot be made in beneficiary designation without my knowledge? (And, by the way, where IS that life insurance policy?)

—Have I checked my credit report at AnnualCreditReport.com — and do I have my own credit, instead of everything from mortgage payments to card ownership being reported in my partner’s name?

—Do I have my own retirement account. (Non-working spouses can have an IRA if they file a joint return and the spouse has earned income.)

—Have I met separately with our broker, financial adviser, tax-preparer and estate planning attorney — where I can ask questions freely and without intimidation?

If you don’t ask those questions now, you’ll be at the mercy of those advisers if and when you are suddenly forced into making important decisions. Helplessness is not a solution in that situation.

And that’s The Savage Truth.

(Terry Savage is a registered investment adviser and the author of four best-selling books, including “The Savage Truth on Money.” Terry responds to questions on her blog at TerrySavage.com.)

We know the longevity statistics, which tell us that a girl born today is predicted to live to age 90.2, and a boy is expected to live to age 87.3. An estimated 14% of boys and 19% of girls born this year are expected to reach 100. But we won’t be around to see that!

A more relevant look at longevity statistics tells us that if you are 65-year old woman, you’re likely to live to age 87. Your male counterpart is expected to live until around age 84. (Yes, on average, women live longer — and that certainly impacts planning.)

But a recent study conducted by the TIAA Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center, found that most Americans are truly in the dark about longevity — their own, and the averages. More than 65% guessed incorrectly when asked about the likely lifespan of a 65-year-old, predicting a far earlier demise.

Why bother thinking about longevity? Because it’s impossible to do real retirement planning without having a reasonable idea of not only the averages but also of the probabilities. If your goal is not to run out of money before you run out of time, you need more than a guess at the probable timing of your lifespan.

Figuring it out

Start by going to a fascinating website — Livingto100.com. There you’ll be asked a few dozen questions, anonymously. They start with genetic factors: How long did your parents live, and your sibings? They also ask a few medical questions such as your blood pressure, and medical issues. Then they move on to your personal habits revolving around smoking, drinking, exercise, consuming water and eating green vegetables. Be honest! Even flossing your teeth can have a significant impact on mortality, since gum disease leads directly to heart problems!

After you’ve filled in the short questionnaire, simply click to find your life expectancy. There are no guarantees, of course, but it’s a better place to start your planning than merely looking at averages. And remember, we all think we are “above average”!

Using longevity in your calculator

Almost every major financial services company has a proprietary website calculator designed to show you how much money you’ll need to retire. And the most sophisticated planners create an analysis of the likelihood your money will last your lifetime, based on your investment and withdrawal strategies, using Monte Carlo analysis programs based on historic returns.

But there’s another dimension to longevity that makes planning difficult. Your retirement lifestyle will not be a straight line in spending (even adjusted for inflation). You’re likely to spend more money in the early retirement years, when you want to travel and dine in restaurants. In time, that spending will dwindle but other costs will arise, namely healthcare issues that might not be covered by Medicare and its supplements. You might even be faced with the catastrophic costs of needing long-term custodial care.

In its annual survey about the cost of healthcare for today’s retirees leaving work at age 65, Fidelity projects that spending to be $157,500 for a single retiree, or $315,000 for a couple — a number that has nearly doubled from the $80,000 for a single retiree estimated in 2002.

One of the most sophisticated financial planning tools is based not only on mathematical factors but on economic-based decision making. It’s called Maxifi Planner (MaxifiPlanner.com) and it was developed by my “Social Security Horror Stories” co-author, economist Larry Kotlikoff. His program takes you into that third planning dimension, and he describes his tool as “powerful and accurate enough to calculate your highest sustainable living standard — starting today — with a plan to maintain and raise that amount — for life.”

Ah, yes, for life. We are back to the original question and the most basic uncertainty: How long will I live? It’s truly unknowable. But it makes sense to take an educated approach to that issue, rather than crossing your fingers and hoping. And that’s The Savage Truth.

(Terry Savage is a registered investment adviser and the author of four best-selling books, including “The Savage Truth on Money.” Terry responds to questions on her blog at TerrySavage.com.)

Other Medicare Advantage insurers — including United Health Group and CVS Health — saw stock declines as the narrowing profit margins are causing a squeeze because of more spending on care for their Advantage patients. Humana forecast the losses continuing through 2025.

And that should scare you — if you are in an Advantage plan.

Think about it logically. How will the insurers turn to recoup those margins? Most likely by raising costs for enrollees or by cutting services. And that will affect your care and your costs down the road. Not so far down the road.

I’ve written about the disadvantages of Advantage plans before. But this is not just a reminder; it’s an opportunity. There is a little-discussed open enrollment period for Medicare Advantage enrollees that lasts until March 31. Until then, you can switch back to traditional Medicare and purchase your supplement. Even the lowest-cost supplement might be better for your future healthcare prospects.

Alternatively, Advantage insurers could bill the government more. In fact, they’ve already been doing that. By designating some patients as “sicker” than they really are, the insurer gets a larger fixed payment to spend on care. Medicare reimbursement per enrollee is based on an average cost per enrollee. But the insurer can “upcode” the health level of their participants — making them sicker than they actually are — to gain higher reimbursement even though insurers may provide no more care to those patients.

The nonpartisan independent commission that oversees Medicare Advantage payments, MedPAC, projects $88 billion in overpayments to insurers in 2024 as a result of this scheme. And the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget forecasts that Medicare Advantage overpayments to insurers could be as much as $1.56 trillion between 2023 and 2033.

How do the insurers get away with overbilling the government? According to Diane Archer of Just Care, USA, “this allows insurers to game the system and claim their enrollees are less healthy than they actually are to generate greater revenues. And, because the government pays the insurers upfront, regardless of what they spend on care, it incentivizes the insurers to inappropriately deny care and delay care in order to maximize profits.”

Even worse, as Advantage programs overbill the government, it undermines the basic financial problems of original Medicare and its sustainability for all of us.

Betting on your health

I’ve written in the past about the care restrictions and prior authorizations required in Advantage plans. It has been a disturbing trend. Yes, some Advantage plans have provided superior results with very low enrollee costs, but the information is not available to tell you which these are. But the plans being sold in television commercials advertising low premiums very well might not deliver the coverage you need when you most need it. They work just fine while you are well and don’t need a lot of care.

Already 51% of Americans have given up the traditional Medicare and supplement insurance and switched to Advantage. The big Medicare Advantage insurers are public companies. What do you think they’ll do next to increase profits?

Switching back

If you want to switch back to original Medicare before March 31, it’s important to follow these steps. First, check to make sure you can get Medicare supplemental insurance to fill coverage gaps (“Medigap”). You can do that at Medicare.gov, where it’s easy to compare Medigap options offered in your area. Choose one, and then contact the company, letting them know you are switching out of Advantage and confirming your eligibility (based on health).

Then, let your Medicare Advantage plan know that you are disenrolling. You will automatically be enrolled in Traditional Medicare. You can confirm your enrollment with Medicare by calling 1-800-633-4227. You can also sign up for Medicare Part D prescription drug coverage at Medicare.gov. Contact your state health insurance assistance program or SHIP for free assistance.

Remember that even the supplement plans with lesser coverage and lower costs guarantee you the right to see any physician or hospital that accepts Medicare and allow them to decide immediately what treatments are necessary, not an AI calculator designed to authorize treatments based on profit margins.

And that’s The Savage Truth

(Terry Savage is a registered investment adviser and the author of four best-selling books, including “The Savage Truth on Money.” Terry responds to questions on her blog at TerrySavage.com.)

©2024 Terry Savage. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Most of the rest of the world knows him as Steve Lotus.

Since becoming a big time artist on the professional golf circuit in 1997, he noticed people had a hard time pronouncing his name, so Lotysz became Lotus and his career as a painter has been blooming ever since.

This year will be special for the 70-year-old, as he will be the artist for his 50th major golf event when he puts brush to canvas for the 152nd British Open at Royal Troon Golf Club in Ayrshire, Scotland.

He has been commissioned to create official artwork for the British Open in July but before that, he will provide the artwork in May at the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky.

His score card includes the last 10 British Opens, the last 25 PGA Championships, the last four U.S. Ryder Cups, four Masters, the U.S. Open and multiple senior major championships.

One of the many highlights of his career was his first encounter with the Masters in Augusta, Georgia.

Long before he was commissioned to do the 2016 Masters, Lotysz and his son, Christopher, were able to walk around the fabled Augusta National course.

“When we walked on the grounds early that morning, I looked out on the ground and said, ‘If I ever get to paint this course, I will have to buy a lot of new paints,”’ he said.

“The colors there were just amazing. There was so much beauty on that course. The flowers. The grasses. The texture. It was just amazing.”

And in 2016, when he got the green light to provide the artwork for the Masters, Lotysz indeed bought some new paints.

“I was experimenting with new greens because they have a magical formula there to make beautiful colors on that course,” Lotysz said.

His career got started in 1997, when he became the signature artist for the U.S. Senior Open at Olympia Fields Country Club.

But landing the gig wasn’t easy. He thought he was qualified to provide the art for that tournament. Those in charge didn’t quite see it that way.

“The people said they would get back to me,” Lotysz said. “But they never got back to me.”

After a few more rounds of people not getting back to him, Lotysz picked up a break when Vince Greci became the golf course president. Greci and his new staff members did get back to Lotysz and a new career was born.

“What I learned is, don’t take ‘no’ for an answer unless you hear it from the right person,” he said. “It’s all about not giving up.”

Lotysz was an artist growing up and never gave up on it when he attended Northern Illinois and changed the course of his career path. The Chicago native was originally an art major but went into science because being an artist was financially iffy, and he thought he could be successful in the sciences.

Lotysz became a dentist and had a long and satisfying career in that field.

But he stayed true to his art and doesn’t think that being a dentist and artist is all that different.

“Good hand and eye coordination helps in both art and dentistry,” he said. “I think there is an artist in every dentist. What they do requires precision.”

Lotysz’s wife of 47 years, Sue Lotysz, plays a huge role in his career, albeit in the background, taking on administrative duties that have helped him sell paintings and prints to people all over the world.

“It’s very rewarding,” she said. “We’ve met so many people. We’ve gotten to know a lot of people who have become friends over the years.”

They have been to 14 states and three other countries for his painting career.

The husband-and-wife tag-team have not hobnobbed with too many golfers but have gotten to know their families well.

Steve, however, was able to develop a relationship with legend Arnold Palmer.

“We were at the British open and I shook his hand, and we talked about the artwork,” Lotysz said of Palmer. “He said he had one of my pieces hanging in his collection.”

Lotysz is not ready to give up being Steve Lotus just yet.

“How can you retire from something you love to do?” he said. “Sue does a lot of the busy work, and she makes sure the operation is being run and there are quite a few details there.

“But she said if I quit, she would go volunteer somewhere else. So, I said I’ll keep painting.”

Jeff Vorva is a freelance reporter for the Daily Southtown.

The good news is all around us. Stocks soar, GDP remains strong, consumers have regained their confidence, unemployment is low, and it appears the Fed has finished raising interest rates.

The stock market is salivating at the idea that rates will drop — encouraging investors to leave their money market funds behind and buy stocks. And it appears that the fed has engineered a “soft landing” for the economy, avoiding recession as it slowed inflation.

The logic of that thinking is compelling. But Jim Stack of InvesTech Research, who has published a must-read newsletter for more than 40 years and has an excellent track record of calling major turns in the economy and markets, says there are major red flags waving today — both for the stock market and the economy. And he has history on his side.

A soft landing?

Stack’s latest newsletter points out that past predictions of a soft landing have proved dramatically wrong.

For example, on Feb 15, 2007, just before the worst recession since the Great Depression, then Fed-Chairman Ben Bernanke firmly proclaimed that the economy was headed for a soft landing. A few weeks later, then-President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Janet Yellen, proclaimed the economy was on a “glide path to the proverbial soft landing.”

Just last week, now-Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments generated this headline from Bloomberg: “Yellen Declares US Economy Has Achieved Soft Landing.”

Stack points out that there have been more media mentions of a “soft-landing” in the past 24 months than the previous two pre-recessionary periods combined (2000-2001 and 2006-2007). And both of those recessions led to stock market declines of around 50%!

Stack says there’s plenty to worry about in the economy , noting the Conference Board’s Index of Leading and Coincident Indicators, has now fallen for 20 consecutive months — the third-longest streak ever. The two other longer streaks of declines (tied at 24 each) immediately preceded the recessions of 1973-74 and 2007-2009.

Stack opines that under the low headline employment numbers, warning signs about the labor market include a sharp drop in the number of people willing to quit their jobs — the “quits rate”. And the pace of new hires has dropped back to its lowest level since 2014. Combined, he says, “that is a sign of falling employee and employer faith in the job market.” (Request a free copy of his latest newsletter at www.Investech.com.)

A bull market?

While the S&P 500 makes new highs, Stacks latest letter issues a warning that falling interest rates are no guarantee of a bull market. In fact, quite the contrary.

During the unwinding of the 2000 “dot-com” tech bubble, the Fed started cutting rates as soon as the stock market started falling. In fact, he notes, the Fed cut the discount rate 11 consecutive times during the subsequent 2 1/2-year bear market but “couldn’t halt the inevitable unwinding of the valuation bubble on Wall Street.”

Can the Fed pre-empt a bear market with cuts? “In 2007, the Fed’s first rate cut came before the final top of the bull market in October of that year and once again, as a deflating housing bubble permeated through the economy, the Fed’s nine subsequent discount rate cuts couldn’t prevent the far-reaching consequences and severe bear market.”

Economic and stock market forecasting always generates conflicting opinions. But with the headlines leaning all in one direction, it might be time to reassess your own risk tolerance. If you’re still contributing to your retirement account on a regular basis, you will automatically “buy the dips” — and profit in the long run, despite bear markets. After all, we are at all-time highs.

But if you are in, or nearing retirement, and no longer contributing, it’s time to take a second look at your stock market exposure. Your time horizon is shorter — and your need for liquidity to fund your retirement lifestyle is greater. And that’s The Savage Truth.

(Terry Savage is a registered investment adviser and the author of four best-selling books, including “The Savage Truth on Money.” Terry responds to questions on her blog at TerrySavage.com.)

(c)2024 Terry Savage. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

These ETFs will trade based on the “spot” (immediate) price of Bitcoin. Notably, Bitcoin futures have been trading on the CME Group platform since December 2017. (Full disclosure: I serve on the Board of Directors of CME Group.)

Securities regulators delayed implementing actual “cash” price trading on regulated securities exchanges in an effort to protect investors. In hindsight, the many and well-publicized issues with “Bitcoin exchanges” validated their concerns.

But now the time has come for regulated, public trading of Bitcoin. So, for my readers, the big question is: Does Bitcoin belong in your portfolio?

And the simple answer is that it depends on who you are and how you view your own risk tolerance. Are you an investor, a speculator, a gambler? Are you looking for thrills, or trading profits, or long-term gains? Do you even understand what Bitcoin is, or does, or can do in the future?

The attraction of Bitcoin

When I first wrote about Bitcoin several years ago (search my columns at TerrySavage.com for “Bitcoin Basics”), I explained that this was a form of electronic currency, similar to alternatives to paper money that have been used throughout the centuries.

Paper money was always easy to create, eventually diminishing the value of the currency. In ancient times, Roman emperors made ridges on the edges of gold and silver coins, to keep holders from shaving off the edges. In fact, historically, gold has always been the best hedge against debasement of the currency (inflation). The simple fact is that gold cannot be created or destroyed, despite centuries of efforts by alchemists.

Supporters view Bitcoin as the “modern gold” because of its limited availability. According to a recent article on Investopedia, the total number of Bitcoins that can ever exist is 21 million. As of December 18, 2023, there were 19,573,975 Bitcoins in existence. This means that there are 1,426,025 Bitcoins left to be “mined.”

Not only is the supply limited but, like gold, the Bitcoin itself cannot be changed because of the blockchain technology used to create it. (And I’ll let you delve deeper into this process on your own.)

But with a limited supply of Bitcoins, and now more access to trading/investing in it, the price has shot up dramatically in recent weeks. It is still below its all-time high of about $69,000 during the peak of the crypto rally in November 2021 but well above its recent lows of around $16,000 at end of 2022.

Bitcoin in your portfolio

The headline prices and coming advertisements for owning Bitcoin are sure to make you wonder whether you should be a buyer now, or maybe wait until the price drops, or get in and out for a quick trade. You can be sure that your broker or investment adviser will be making suggestions, now that the access to Bitcoin pricing is more secure and regulated — and now that these purchases create commissions!

Before taking action, you must understand your own emotional risk tolerance. Are you ready to accept the volatility — and potential losses as Bitcoin prices fluctuate based on emotions of traders? After all, Bitcoin is just a commodity, with no intrinsic use. Even gold has actual uses in jewelry and in industry.

Prices of commodities fluctuate based on supply and demand realities — the impact of weather on agricultural commodities, the impact of central banks on interest rates, the impact of government policies on the value of a currency. But Bitcoin has no such basic commodity determinants; it is purely a speculation.

If you’re a speculator or gambler, Bitcoin will likely be the focal point of a lot of attention in coming years — a great place to get some “action.” That volatility will attract traders who seek volatility, timing their moves in a disciplined manner.

But if you’re a long-term investor, creating a retirement fund that will carry you through your final years, please limit your exposure to just enough to give you something to talk about at parties. It is very unlikely that Bitcoin — or any cryptocurrency — will replace the dollar in your lifetime. It’s pure speculation. And that’s The Savage Truth.

(Terry Savage is a registered investment adviser and the author of four best-selling books, including “The Savage Truth on Money.” Terry responds to questions on her blog at TerrySavage.com.)

(c)2024 Terry Savage. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.